Learn Source note

Where to find reliable political evidence

Political arguments often start with the wrong question:

Political arguments often start with the wrong question:

"Which source should I believe?"

A better question is:

"What evidence would actually answer this question?"

There isn't one website that is always the best source. The right source depends on whether you're checking migration numbers, government spending, an election result, a politician's words, a party's finances, a court judgment or an economic forecast.

The most useful skill is knowing where to look first.

Start as close to the original evidence as possible

If somebody claims Reform UK has a particular policy, start with Reform UK's own published policy.

If somebody claims unemployment has risen, look for the ONS data.

If the claim concerns government spending, look for the relevant accounts, Treasury material, OBR analysis or parliamentary research.

If somebody says a court decided something, find the judgment.

If the claim concerns a political donation, check the Electoral Commission.

This doesn't mean primary sources are automatically truthful or neutral. A political party's manifesto is excellent evidence of what that party says its policy is; it isn't independent evidence that the policy will work.

The trick is matching the source to the question.

Official statistics: start with the ONS

The Office for National Statistics is Britain's principal independent producer of official statistics.

It is particularly useful for:

  • population and migration;
  • employment and wages;
  • inflation and prices;
  • GDP and economic growth;
  • crime survey data;
  • births, deaths and demographic change.

When somebody shares a dramatic statistic about Britain, ONS is often a good first stop.

But check the definitions. "UK", "Great Britain" and "England and Wales" aren't interchangeable, and neither are immigration and net migration, employment and jobs, or police-recorded crime and Crime Survey estimates.

Parliament: one of the most useful resources on the internet

The House of Commons Library produces research briefings for MPs covering everything from immigration and taxation to elections, defence, housing and the ECHR.

For many political questions, it is one of the best places to begin because its researchers often take complicated legislation, statistics and policy history and explain them in accessible language.

It is particularly useful when a viral claim contains a grain of truth but needs context.

Parliament also provides the original record of what MPs actually said through Hansard.

If a graphic says:

"Farage said X in Parliament."

Don't rely on the graphic if you can find the parliamentary record.

Government departments: useful, but understand what you're reading

GOV.UK contains an enormous amount of primary material: statistics, legislation, policy documents, departmental guidance and spending information.

For immigration and asylum, for example, the Home Office immigration statistics provide much of the underlying data used elsewhere in the debate.

Government statistics and administrative data can be excellent evidence.

Government press releases, however, are something different.

A department describing its policy as a "historic success" is making a political or communications claim. Follow the links to the underlying statistics and judge the evidence separately.

Economic claims: OBR, IFS and Resolution Foundation

Economic arguments are particularly vulnerable to enormous numbers being thrown around without context.

Three organisations are especially useful.

The Office for Budget Responsibility is the UK's official independent fiscal watchdog. It produces forecasts for the economy and public finances and assesses the sustainability of government fiscal policy.

It is particularly important when claims concern borrowing, taxation, government spending, growth or the long-term economic consequences of policy.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies is independent of government and specialises in taxation, public spending, living standards and public finances. Its analysis of party manifestos can be particularly valuable during elections because it asks the question political parties sometimes avoid:

Do the numbers add up?

The Resolution Foundation specialises particularly in living standards, wages and low-to-middle-income households.

They don't necessarily answer the same question, so one should not automatically be substituted for another.

Immigration: use specialist evidence as well as government data

Immigration is unusually complicated because legal categories, visa routes and different datasets are routinely mixed together.

The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford is particularly useful because it explains what the underlying statistics can --- and sometimes cannot --- tell us.

That qualification matters.

If reliable data does not allow a confident conclusion about, for example, migrant offending rates, the correct answer isn't to hunt around until somebody supplies a number that supports your side.

Sometimes:

"We don't have sufficiently good data to establish that"

is the most accurate fact-check available.

Elections, parties and political money

For official election results, Parliament and the relevant electoral authorities should generally come before social-media graphics or newspaper summaries.

For political donations, loans, campaign spending and party registration, use the Electoral Commission and its political finance database.

This is particularly important when examining Reform UK.

If we're investigating who funds the party, the first question shouldn't be:

"What does an Anti-Reform page say?"

It should be:

"What has actually been declared to the Electoral Commission?"

We can then investigate the people, companies and relationships revealed by those records.

Companies and people behind political organisations

Companies House provides corporate filings, directors, company accounts and information about persons with significant control.

It can be extremely useful when investigating political organisations, donors and business interests.

But company records need careful interpretation.

Being a director of a company isn't evidence of wrongdoing. Neither is appearing alongside somebody in a corporate filing.

The record establishes the connection.

What that connection means requires further evidence.

That's particularly important when we're investigating Reform: we want to expose genuine relationships and conflicts, not create guilt by association.

Laws and court judgments

For legislation, use legislation.gov.uk.

For UK Supreme Court decisions, use the Supreme Court itself.

For European human-rights cases, use the European Court of Human Rights' HUDOC database.

Court reporting can simplify complicated judgments --- sometimes too much.

If somebody says:

"The ECHR ruled Britain couldn't deport migrants to Rwanda."

the judgment or decision lets us establish what the court actually decided, in which case, on what grounds and with what legal effect.

That can be considerably different from the political slogan built around it.

Independent fact-checkers

Organisations such as Full Fact can be very useful, particularly when a claim has already circulated widely.

Good fact-checking can save considerable research time because it identifies the original claim, tracks down the underlying evidence and explains what has gone wrong.

But the same principle still applies:

follow the sources.

A Full Fact article is stronger when you can see the ONS dataset, government document or other evidence underneath it.

What about newspapers?

Journalism is indispensable.

Reuters, the BBC, the Financial Times, Guardian, Times, Telegraph, Sky and many others can uncover information that doesn't exist in an official dataset at all.

Investigative journalism may itself be the original source of a story.

But distinguish:

reporting → analysis → opinion.

A newspaper's political position doesn't automatically make its factual reporting false. Nor does the reputation of a newspaper make every claim it publishes correct.

For important allegations, look for documents, named sources, corroboration and subsequent reporting.

And wherever possible, trace statistical claims back to their underlying evidence.

Political parties are sources too

This is particularly important for an Anti-Reform website.

Reform UK itself will often be our best primary source.

If we're criticising one of its policies, use its manifesto, policy document, constitution, speech or official statement wherever possible.

That prevents an easy rebuttal:

"Reform never actually said that."

We should quote Reform accurately and then test what it says.

The same principle applies to Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens and other political organisations.

A party is authoritative evidence of what it says.

It is not independent evidence that what it says is true.

Social media is a lead, not evidence

Facebook, X, TikTok, YouTube and other platforms are often where we first encounter something worth investigating.

Treat that as the beginning of the research process.

A post might lead us to:

a policy → a speech → a company → a donation → a dataset → a court judgment.

Follow that trail.

Don't mistake the first post for the final evidence.

And what about AI?

AI is becoming an extremely useful research assistant.

We use it ourselves.

It can help identify relevant sources, explain unfamiliar terminology, compare documents, locate contradictory claims and turn a complicated research question into something manageable.

But AI should generally sit between the question and the evidence, not replace the evidence.

Ask it:

"Find me the primary source."

"What evidence would prove or disprove this?"

"Find authoritative sources that disagree with this claim."

"What am I missing?"

Then check what it finds.

An AI-generated answer without supporting evidence is still just an answer.

Our source rule

For material published by Anti-Reform, the basic principle is:

Use the strongest source reasonably available for the claim being made.

That doesn't always mean an official source.

Sometimes the strongest evidence is an investigative report, academic study, leaked document or eyewitness account.

But important claims should be traceable.

Readers should be able to ask:

"How do you know?"

and we should usually be able to show them.

One final rule --- don't source-shop

This is perhaps the most important principle for an advocacy website.

If we investigate a claim about Reform and the best available evidence doesn't support the criticism we expected to make, we don't keep searching until we find a weaker source that does.

We change the argument.

Likewise, if an old Anti-Reform post contains a statistic that newer evidence shows is wrong, we correct it rather than defend it.

Our political objective is clear.

But evidence isn't something we select afterwards to justify a conclusion we've already decided must be true.

The strongest case against Reform is the one that survives contact with the strongest available evidence.

Source links

  • Office for National Statistics --- https://www.ons.gov.uk/
  • House of Commons Library --- https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/
  • Hansard --- https://hansard.parliament.uk/
  • GOV.UK --- https://www.gov.uk/
  • Home Office immigration statistics --- https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/immigration-statistics-quarterly-release
  • Office for Budget Responsibility --- https://obr.uk/
  • Institute for Fiscal Studies --- https://ifs.org.uk/
  • Resolution Foundation --- https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/
  • Migration Observatory --- https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/
  • Electoral Commission --- https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/
  • Political finance database --- https://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/
  • Companies House --- https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/
  • UK legislation --- https://www.legislation.gov.uk/
  • UK Supreme Court --- https://www.supremecourt.uk/
  • HUDOC --- https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/
  • Full Fact --- https://fullfact.org/

When this was checked

Last checked 23 August 2026.

Sources are listed so you can read the underlying material yourself. Listing a source is not the same as independent verification.

Back to Learn